Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:48:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x4874…3b08 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$207 (-10%) realized −$207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$532per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days−$170
14 days−$170
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$170
sports 4% −$80
crypto 3% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-58.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -8.0% -16.8% 50% 0% -17.3%
≤30d 2 -8.0% -16.8% 50% 0% -17.3%
≤90d 2 -8.0% -16.8% 50% 0% -17.3%
all 4 -54.0% -58.4% 25% 0% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.4% 0% -23.0%
10% -62.4% 0% -30.4%
15% -66.0% 0% -37.1%
20% -69.3% 0% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$107 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage198d
Avg bet$532
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $926 +$5 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,055 −$175 -17%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 8? Dec 08 $66 −$66 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $931 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $411 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $443 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $514 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $437 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $244 32h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $257 39h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $554 8d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 19¢ $80 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 8? BUY Yes 43¢ $66 198d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records