Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4875…2eb3 crypto 4 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-42%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip
Net edge-83%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$29
world 15% $0
other 15% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-81.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -80.0% -81.9% 0% 0% -81.9%
≤30d 1 -80.0% -81.9% 0% 0% -81.9%
≤90d 1 -80.0% -81.9% 0% 0% -81.9%
all 1 -80.0% -81.9% 0% 0% -81.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -81.9% 0% -81.9%
10% -83.6% 0% -83.6%
15% -85.2% 0% -85.2%
20% -86.6% 0% -86.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$29 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$29 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $10 5d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $10 5d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.73 · official $29.73 (match) · 8 history records