Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:25:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
48 0x4877…5c7f world 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$142 (+1%) realized +$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate49%48W / 50L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$151
other 23% $0
politics 18% $0
sports 7% $0
finance 3% −$12
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.5% -8.2% 25% 12% -9.5%
≤30d 34 -1.4% -10.8% 41% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 45 +7.4% -2.8% 44% 9% -8.3%
all 98 +3.7% -6.2% 49% 5% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 5% -8.3%
10% -15.1% 3% -17.1%
15% -23.3% 2% -25.1%
20% -30.9% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses48 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage488d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $125 $125 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $142 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $142 −$2 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $271 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +12%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $272 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $195 −$2 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $139 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $131 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $130 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $266 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $155 −$11 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $298 +$8 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $62 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $280 +$2 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $276 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $198 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $339 +$2 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $7 −$2 -34%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $237 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $144 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $137 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $377 +$2 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $93 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $272 −$9 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $105 −$11 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $317 −$34 -11%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $8 −$2 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $190 +$6 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $142 +$34 +24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $3 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $505 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $176 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $147 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 23 $10 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $124 −$3 -2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $1,209 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $63 +$159 +254%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $990 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $989 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $991 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 17 $7 $0 -3%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 17 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $125 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $31 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $102 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $40 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $142 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $27 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $140 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $142 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $142 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $142 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $128 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $130 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $129 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $129 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $61 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $68 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $129 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $124 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $142 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $40 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $6 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 79¢ $46 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.13 · official $125.23 (match) · 372 history records