Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x487f…1cfe weather 1497 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%1457W / 32L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$25
14 days+$26
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% +$6
crypto 10% +$11
other 2% +$21
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 1% -7.9%
≤30d 935 -0.8% -10.2% 97% 2% -8.9%
≤90d 1489 -0.8% -10.3% 98% 1% -9.1%
all 1489 -0.8% -10.3% 98% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 1% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1457 / 32
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1489 / 1497
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1489 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 18? Up 99¢ 100¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 89¢ 93¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$19 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $6 26m
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $36 34m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 13h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.41 · official $97.41 (match) · 3500 history records