Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
48 0x4880…ccf8 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$45 (+11%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +9.7% -0.7% 62% 58% +0.4%
≤30d 26 +9.7% -0.7% 62% 58% +0.4%
≤90d 26 +9.7% -0.7% 62% 58% +0.4%
all 26 +9.7% -0.7% 62% 58% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 58% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.2% 54% -9.2%
15% -18.9% 50% -18.0%
20% -26.9% 42% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $27 +$29 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $39 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$25 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$17 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$11 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$9 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.38 · official $55.38 (match) · 46 history records