Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:30:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4881…13b5
crypto · 1774 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$459 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$459 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized+$459
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses1027 / 747
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1774 / 1774
History coverage128d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1774 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 56¢ 100¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+79%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 25 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 25 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 25 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 25 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 11 $4 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 11 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 11 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 11 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$459
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +7.9% -2.3% 58% 58% -1.5%
≤30d 42 +10.1% -0.4% 60% 60% +0.4%
≤90d 850 -0.5% -10.0% 55% 55% -8.4%
all 1774 +2.1% -7.7% 58% 56% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 56% -8.2%
10% -16.5% 55% -17.0%
15% -24.6% 53% -25.0%
20% -32.0% 50% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.36 · official $7.36 (match) · 3500 history records