Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4881…be1c
sports · 89 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$19 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$11
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses61 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage178d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 2 History 87 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 58¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Clippers Lakers 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Magic vs. Jazz Jazz 71¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Superform FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs Paper Rex 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? No 18¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Yes 84¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Alter Ego (BO5) - World Championship M7 Playoffs Selangor Red Giants 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Millwall FC vs. Bristol City FC end in a draw? Yes 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Gabon vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 23¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Yes 64¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Gabon win on 2025-12-31? Yes 64¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Porto vs. AVS Futebol end in a draw? Yes 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-01-29? Yes 73¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 02 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 02 $7 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 02 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 02 $4 +$2 +50%
Superform FDV above $100M one day after launch? Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-01-29? Jan 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia C Jan 26 $3 $0 +7%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $2 +$1 +47%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Alter Ego (BO5) - Wor Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jan 17 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Nigeria vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jan 14 $1 +$1 +63%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $2 $0 +15%
Flyers vs. Oilers Jan 03 $1 $0 +44%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jan 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will OGC Nice vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? Jan 03 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Genoa CFC vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Jan 03 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? Jan 03 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Vitória SC win on 2026-01-02? Jan 02 $11 +$1 +14%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? Jan 02 $8 +$3 +37%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jan 01 $3 +$1 +58%
Will Brentford FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jan 01 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Jan 01 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jan 01 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw? Jan 01 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $4 −$3 -77%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $4 $0 +12%
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $2 +$2 +81%
Lightning vs. Ducks Jan 01 $2 $0 +23%
Predators vs. Golden Knights Dec 31 $1 +$1 +63%
Will Gabon vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Dec 31 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Gabon win on 2025-12-31? Dec 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw Dec 30 $28 +$2 +9%
Will Chelsea FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Dec 30 $1 +$2 +222%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tanzania vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Dec 30 $19 +$8 +41%
Sharks vs. Ducks Dec 30 $17 +$2 +15%
Will Millwall FC vs. Bristol City FC end in a draw? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Porto vs. AVS Futebol end in a draw? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel Presi Dec 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will SC Braga vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? Dec 28 $14 +$5 +35%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Dec 28 $8 +$3 +39%
Will Mozambique win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $8 $0 +4%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% +$35
other 33% +$16
crypto 8% −$28
politics 2% −$5
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 104d
Superform FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 127d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs BUY Paper Rex 49¢ $1 128d
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-01-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 136d
Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia C SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $3 139d
Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia C BUY Team Nemesis 93¢ $3 139d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 140d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 141d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Alter Ego (BO5) - Wor BUY Selangor Red Giants 32¢ $1 141d
Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 148d
Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 148d
Will Nigeria vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 150d
Will Nigeria vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 150d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 161d
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-01-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 161d
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-01-04? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 161d
Flyers vs. Oilers SELL Flyers 100¢ $1 161d
Flyers vs. Oilers BUY Flyers 69¢ $1 161d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 161d
Will OGC Nice vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 161d
Will OGC Nice vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $17 161d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -47.6% -52.6% 50% 0% -52.6%
≤30d 2 -47.6% -52.6% 50% 0% -52.6%
≤90d 2 -47.6% -52.6% 50% 0% -52.6%
all 87 -0.5% -10.0% 70% 51% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 51% -7.1%
10% -18.6% 31% -16.0%
15% -26.4% 24% -24.1%
20% -33.7% 16% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.66 · official $10.66 (match) · 170 history records