Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4881…93ab other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$76 (-8%) realized −$14 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%46W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days−$31
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$132
sports 24% −$2
crypto 6% −$4
weather 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +11.6% +1.0% 75% 75% +8.1%
≤30d 45 +18.6% +7.3% 51% 49% -13.2%
≤90d 98 -1.5% -10.9% 47% 39% -17.8%
all 98 -1.5% -10.9% 47% 39% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 39% -17.8%
10% -19.4% 33% -25.7%
15% -27.2% 27% -32.8%
20% -34.4% 20% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses46 / 52
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage58d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $64 +$16 +25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $29 +$18 +63%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$12 +23%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $69 +$32 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$24 +781%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $65 +$33 +51%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $19 +$7 +39%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $13 +$7 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 +$2 +15%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$14 +263%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$4 +138%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 +$3 +21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -53%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$9 +45%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$14 +330%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$11 +543%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -35%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $3 +$4 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $41 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $19 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $39 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $23 4h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $24 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 97¢ $48 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 26h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 26h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 28h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $63 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $63 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 8d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $22 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $69 9d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 9d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $99 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 9d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $19 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 10d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.16 (match) · 318 history records