Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x4884…237c sports 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,577 (+10%) realized +$2,469 · open +$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate63%58W / 34L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$309est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$363
7 days+$1,278
14 days+$1,349
30 days+$1,363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$2,466
other 9% +$119
crypto 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +9.9% -0.6% 67% 63% -0.4%
≤30d 82 +8.4% -2.0% 63% 60% -2.5%
≤90d 85 +10.1% -0.4% 64% 60% +4.8%
all 92 +7.4% -2.8% 63% 59% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 59% -0.9%
10% -12.1% 52% -10.4%
15% -20.6% 43% -19.1%
20% -28.4% 27% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$223 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$385
Realized+$2,469
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses58 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$309
Open positions3
Markets (closed)92 / 95
History coverage371d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 69¢ 94¢ $150 $204 +$53 (+36%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 49¢ 78¢ $101 $161 +$60 (+59%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Under 15¢ 12¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $102 +$139 +136%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $101 +$77 +76%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $26 +$1 +4%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $26 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $76 −$50 -65%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $403 +$150 +37%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $51 +$21 +41%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $202 −$202 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $203 −$203 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $304 −$304 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $402 +$67 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $304 +$124 +41%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $502 +$79 +16%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $606 +$172 +28%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $101 +$26 +25%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $202 +$73 +36%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $404 +$197 +49%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $277 +$124 +45%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $100 +$13 +13%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $51 −$39 -77%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $202 +$45 +22%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $51 +$93 +182%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $101 +$60 +60%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $101 +$88 +87%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $203 −$203 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $197 +$95 +48%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $404 +$216 +54%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $202 +$76 +38%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $202 +$84 +42%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $504 +$210 +42%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1,013 +$730 +72%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $554 −$554 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $406 −$406 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $151 −$151 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $26 +$20 +75%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1,011 +$561 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $26 1m
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 56¢ $51 18m
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 44¢ $0 31m
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 44¢ $50 31m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 69¢ $150 37m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 78¢ $77 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 26¢ $8 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 26¢ $8 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 26¢ $10 2h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 25¢ $25 2h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 9¢ $26 2h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 38¢ $102 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 12¢ $26 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $302 20h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $102 21h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $102 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 37¢ $26 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $76 22h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $101 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 88¢ $215 23h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $402 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 86¢ $502 23h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 90¢ $7 23h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 71¢ $54 23h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 78¢ $65 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $37 24h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $278 24h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $606 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $384.75 · official $383.92 (match) · 382 history records