trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -47.7% | -52.7% | 33% | 33% | -25.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -47.7% | -52.7% | 33% | 33% | -25.6% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -47.7% | -52.7% | 33% | 33% | -25.6% |
| all | 8 | -2.7% | -12.0% | 50% | 50% | -17.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.0% | 50% | -17.4% |
| 10% | -20.4% | 38% | -25.3% |
| 15% | -28.1% | 38% | -32.5% |
| 20% | -35.1% | 25% | -39.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $1,019 | $1,183 | +$164 (+16%) |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? | Yes | 45¢ | 16¢ | $100 | $37 | −$63 (-63%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $572 | +$326 | +57% |
| Spread: Scotland (-2.5) | Jun 14 | $512 | −$500 | -98% |
| Spread: Brazil (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $21 | −$20 | -98% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 15 | $3,239 | −$322 | -10% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Jan 12 | $100 | +$65 | +65% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | Jan 12 | $101 | +$22 | +22% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 12 | $100 | −$3 | -3% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Jan 12 | $48 | +$22 | +47% |