Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
48 0x4886…bcc1 world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$239 (-4%) realized −$339 · open +$100
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$584per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$194
7 days−$194
14 days−$194
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$215
other 29% +$426
sports 9% −$520
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -47.7% -52.7% 33% 33% -25.6%
≤30d 3 -47.7% -52.7% 33% 33% -25.6%
≤90d 3 -47.7% -52.7% 33% 33% -25.6%
all 8 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 50% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 50% -17.4%
10% -20.4% 38% -25.3%
15% -28.1% 38% -32.5%
20% -35.1% 25% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$211 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$1,220
Realized−$339
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage159d
Avg bet$584
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,019 $1,183 +$164 (+16%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 16¢ $100 $37 −$63 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $572 +$326 +57%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $512 −$500 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $3,239 −$322 -10%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 12 $100 +$65 +65%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 12 $101 +$22 +22%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 12 $100 −$3 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Jan 12 $48 +$22 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $572 40h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Scotland 22¢ $512 40h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 14¢ $21 41h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,048 5d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $1,423 151d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,956 153d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,494 153d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $165 153d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? SELL Yes $123 153d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $97 153d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $70 153d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $687 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $192 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $23 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $121 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $35 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $90 157d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $48 158d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 158d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY Yes $100 158d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 158d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 158d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,219.54 · official $1,219.54 (match) · 37 history records