Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
48 0x4886…6a97 sports 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$140 (+11%) realized +$139 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%23W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$274
7 days+$274
14 days+$274
30 days+$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$53
other 31% +$137
crypto 16% +$25
world 2% +$2
politics 1% +$1
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +51.0% +36.6% 80% 80% +56.0%
≤30d 5 +51.0% +36.6% 80% 80% +56.0%
≤90d 5 +51.0% +36.6% 80% 80% +56.0%
all 59 -12.8% -21.1% 39% 34% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 34% -0.9%
10% -28.6% 32% -10.4%
15% -35.5% 32% -19.1%
20% -41.8% 29% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% too few recent
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$12 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$139
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses23 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage147d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 +$112 +110%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$59 +116%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Djokovic vs. Draper: Match O/U 23.5 Mar 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $10 $0 -3%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 11 $10 $0 -2%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 11 $10 $0 +0%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5 Mar 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 11 $3 +$14 +461%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 11 $10 +$18 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 06 $13 +$2 +18%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 06 $10 +$7 +65%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 06 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 05 $5 +$12 +233%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-02-02? Feb 03 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-02? Feb 03 $20 +$18 +89%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-02? Feb 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Getafe CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Feb 02 $5 +$6 +122%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $35 +$38 +108%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Jan 30 $35 −$25 -71%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jan 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina Jan 29 $38 +$17 +45%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $10 +$18 +178%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina Jan 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Páfos FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $10 +$19 +186%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Iga Swiatek Jan 28 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jan 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $25 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 19h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $101 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 22h
Djokovic vs. Draper: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Over 45¢ $9 102d
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 74¢ $10 102d
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 35¢ $10 102d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 102d
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $10 102d
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 36¢ $10 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 102d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $10 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.41 · official $209.42 (match) · 117 history records