Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:46:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4887…16e4 sports 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$178 (-5%) realized −$178 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%80W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$46
14 days+$171
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$11
other 22% +$212
world 19% −$220
politics 4% −$78
crypto 4% +$116
tech 0% +$11
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +12.5% +1.8% 42% 37% -13.9%
≤30d 23 +9.5% -0.9% 43% 35% -12.1%
≤90d 149 -62.8% -66.4% 17% 15% -33.8%
all 211 +1.6% -8.0% 38% 36% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 36% -8.8%
10% -16.8% 36% -17.5%
15% -24.9% 35% -25.5%
20% -32.2% 34% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +74% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses80 / 131
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)211 / 211
History coverage248d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 211 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Nor Jun 23 $10 +$69 +673%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $234 +$141 +60%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $69 −$49 -71%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $219 −$218 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $91 −$90 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $26 +$23 +91%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $13 +$5 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 +$52 +66%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 +$75 +253%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $64 +$72 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $144 +$237 +164%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $297 −$210 -71%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 07 $22 −$16 -74%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 26 $94 −$94 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 20 $15 +$7 +47%
Spread: Clippers (-4.5) Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 18 $81 +$112 +138%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $22 +$5 +23%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 15 $20 −$12 -61%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 14 $69 −$30 -44%
Spread: Thunder (-17.5) Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Jazz Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-12.5) Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-5.5) Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Celtics Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Cavaliers Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $114 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 31¢ $95 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $139 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 49¢ $49 12h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 30¢ $2 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 30¢ $5 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 39¢ $10 12h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 12h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Nor BUY 13¢ $10 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $20 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $116 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 40¢ $29 34h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $20 34h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $42 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 88¢ $7 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 88¢ $11 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 95¢ $4 37h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 95¢ $19 37h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $13 37h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $26 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No $9 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 42¢ $17 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 595 history records