Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
48 0x4887…dea2 other 124 markets active 3d ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$233 (-21%) realized −$222 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%40W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$54
sports 19% −$2
politics 10% −$111
crypto 5% −$27
world 5% −$5
economics 4% −$40
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +134.0% +111.8% 44% 44% -42.1%
≤30d 11 +108.5% +88.6% 45% 45% -35.9%
≤90d 47 +37.4% +24.3% 60% 60% +3.4%
all 114 -17.5% -25.4% 35% 34% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 34% -30.2%
10% -32.5% 31% -36.8%
15% -39.0% 28% -42.9%
20% -45.0% 20% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$222
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses40 / 74
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)114 / 124
History coverage141d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 29¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+40%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 17¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-25%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-73%)
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$16 +1567%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 25 $10 −$8 -75%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $10 +$6 +62%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5 May 18 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $10 +$8 +79%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 18 $20 +$6 +27%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 11 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? May 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 +$7 +65%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $10 +$4 +44%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $10 +$1 +13%
Spread: Sevilla FC (-1.5) May 05 $10 +$2 +18%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 05 $10 +$4 +44%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $10 +$6 +60%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $10 +$9 +86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $8 +$24 +291%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Score May 02 $10 +$6 +55%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 01 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 01 $10 −$4 -37%
Will NewJeans perform again by March 31? May 01 $10 +$4 +43%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 18 $5 +$2 +45%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $10 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 11¢ $3 24d
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 28d
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 28d
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 28d
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 28d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 28d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 28d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 28d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 28d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 28d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 28d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 28d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 31d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 31d
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 33d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 33d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 33d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 33d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 35d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $10 38d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 38d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Stade Brestois 29 65¢ $20 38d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 39d
Will Real Oviedo vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.95 · official $83.95 (match) · 203 history records