Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:32:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4888…5f37 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-4%) realized −$38 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$80
sports 13% −$100
world 7% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +8.8% -1.6% 50% 50% -14.2%
≤30d 10 +8.8% -1.6% 50% 50% -14.2%
≤90d 10 +8.8% -1.6% 50% 50% -14.2%
all 10 +8.8% -1.6% 50% 50% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 50% -14.2%
10% -11.0% 50% -22.4%
15% -19.6% 50% -29.9%
20% -27.5% 20% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$42 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$22 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$79 +154%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$6 -11%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$46 +46%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$49 -96%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$9 -17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$98 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $73 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 96¢ $130 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $46 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $51 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 26h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $43 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 27h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $51 30h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.84 · official $203.84 (match) · 30 history records