Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4888…86bf other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-28%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% $0
sports 41% −$11
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-75.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -72.9% -75.5% 25% 0% -62.6%
≤30d 4 -72.9% -75.5% 25% 0% -62.6%
≤90d 4 -72.9% -75.5% 25% 0% -62.6%
all 4 -72.9% -75.5% 25% 0% -62.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -75.5% 0% -62.6%
10% ← realistic here -77.8% 0% -66.2%
15% -80.0% 0% -69.4%
20% -81.9% 0% -72.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 58¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 23¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-19%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 77¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 64¢ 53¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $8 +$1 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 92¢ $2 2h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 92¢ $2 2h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 92¢ $2 2h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 92¢ $2 2h
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 64¢ $2 2h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 50¢ $2 2h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 46¢ $2 3h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 3h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $2 3h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 1¢ $2 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $2 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $2 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $2 4h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 5h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 6h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $2 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $2 6h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 6h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 6h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.82 · official $26.82 (match) · 26 history records