Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4888…c7d3 sports 27 markets active 6d ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,999 (-24%) realized −$4,999 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%18W / 9L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$758per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,611
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,036
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.9% -18.5% 50% 50% -44.2%
≤30d 5 +7.7% -2.5% 60% 60% -10.6%
≤90d 22 +10.4% -0.1% 64% 64% -32.4%
all 27 +14.3% +3.4% 67% 67% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 67% -31.8%
10% -6.5% 59% -38.4%
15% -15.5% 56% -44.3%
20% -23.8% 44% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$677) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$1,089 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,999
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses18 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage98d
Avg bet$758
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,186 +$732 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $342 +$337 +99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,158 −$2,140 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $548 −$541 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,963 +$1,537 +78%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 15 $2,358 −$2,327 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 15 $12 −$11 -98%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner May 15 $453 −$446 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Apr 16 $677 +$323 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $131 +$25 +19%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Apr 15 $134 +$56 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU - Map 1 Winner Apr 15 $275 −$275 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 09 $8 +$7 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Dione Barbosa (Women's Flyweight, P Apr 09 $95 +$78 +83%
Miami Open: Ugo Humbert vs Francisco Cerundolo Apr 02 $6 +$6 +100%
Nuggets vs. Suns Apr 02 $10 +$5 +45%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Apr 02 $7 +$8 +117%
Bucaramanga: Cannon Kingsley vs Adria Soriano Barrera Apr 02 $10 +$9 +96%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Apr 02 $9 +$13 +143%
Miami Open: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev Apr 02 $19 +$3 +15%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Alexander Zverev Mar 07 $5,989 +$1,611 +27%
Utah vs. Flyers Mar 06 $6 +$6 +85%
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets Mar 06 $7 +$6 +92%
Raptors vs. Timberwolves Mar 06 $10 +$5 +54%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 05 $4,043 −$4,043 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $1,918 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 62¢ $86 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 61¢ $178 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 61¢ $277 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 61¢ $646 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $679 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 72¢ $25 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 72¢ $1,836 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 72¢ $126 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 72¢ $24 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 72¢ $147 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 53¢ $42 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $335 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 53¢ $400 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $106 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $7 6d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $954 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $103 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $6 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $13 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $317 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $6 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $6 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $280 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $3 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $8 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records