Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
48 0x4889…86e8 sports 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 344d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$782 (-2%) realized −$668 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate70%84W / 36L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$886
other 0% −$27
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$2
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.3% -2.9% 100% 0% -2.9%
≤30d 1 +7.3% -2.9% 100% 0% -2.9%
≤90d 28 -18.7% -26.4% 64% 18% -12.6%
all 120 -2.7% -12.0% 70% 40% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 40% -10.6%
10% -20.4% 22% -19.2%
15% -28.1% 15% -27.0%
20% -35.1% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$81 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$668
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses84 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage344d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Clara Tauson 97¢ 62¢ $310 $196 −$114 (-37%)
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Xinyu Wang 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Darderi Jun 21 $20 +$1 +7%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $15 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 13 $107 −$75 -70%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev May 12 $800 −$800 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic May 12 $100 +$16 +16%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud May 11 $127 −$6 -5%
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 23 $20 −$10 -49%
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Zizou Bergs Apr 16 $4,000 +$141 +4%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Miomir Kecmanovic Apr 14 $701 +$11 +2%
BMW Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Joao Fonseca Apr 14 $3,235 +$97 +3%
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Sinner Apr 12 $15 +$3 +19%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $27 −$4 -14%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $3,108 +$127 +4%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Flavio Cobolli vs Francisco Comesana Apr 11 $20 +$4 +17%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Gabriel Diallo Apr 11 $32 $0 -0%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 11 $3,007 +$45 +2%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Emilio Nava Apr 06 $20 +$1 +7%
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Tsitsipas Apr 06 $10 +$1 +9%
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Mannarino Apr 06 $20 +$1 +7%
Set 1 Winner: Monfils vs Griekspoor Apr 06 $10 +$2 +22%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Gael Monfils vs Tallon Griekspoor Apr 06 $120 −$5 -4%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Learner Tien vs Roman Andres Burruc Apr 04 $10 +$1 +14%
Bucharest Open: Mariano Navone vs Botic van de Zandschulp Apr 04 $1,000 −$589 -59%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Rafael Jodar vs Tomas Machac Apr 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Jesper de Jong vs Yannick Hanfmann Apr 02 $3,523 +$143 +4%
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Mar 30 $30 +$2 +6%
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Federico Agustin Gom Mar 30 $3,446 +$45 +1%
Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jakub Mensik Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Open: Reilly Opelka vs Taylor Fritz Mar 23 $50 +$5 +9%
Miami Open: Ethan Quinn vs Jiri Lehecka Mar 23 $100 +$6 +6%
Miami Open: Rafael Jodar vs Tomas Etcheverry Mar 23 $3,207 +$118 +4%
Miami Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac Mar 22 $300 +$25 +8%
Miami Open: Luciano Darderi vs Martin Landaluce Mar 21 $210 +$45 +21%
Miami Open: Ethan Quinn vs Hubert Hurkacz Mar 20 $1,969 +$44 +2%
Miami Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Mar 19 $270 −$226 -84%
BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Mar 16 $120 −$42 -35%
BNP Paribas Open: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Mar 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Set 1 Winner: Fils vs Zverev Mar 15 $100 +$10 +10%
BNP Paribas Open: Arthur Fils vs Alexander Zverev Mar 15 $1,809 +$77 +4%
BNP Paribas Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Cameron Norrie Mar 12 $10 +$4 +37%
Set 1 Winner: Fils vs Auger-Aliassime Mar 11 $210 +$26 +12%
BNP Paribas Open: Arthur Fils vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Mar 11 $520 +$100 +19%
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Mar 10 $200 +$33 +16%
BNP Paribas Open: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur Mar 10 $1,244 +$19 +2%
BNP Paribas Open: Alexander Bublik vs Vit Kopriva Mar 09 $30 −$13 -42%
BNP Paribas Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Alexander Zverev Mar 09 $210 +$48 +23%
BNP Paribas Open: Ugo Humbert vs Alex Michelsen Mar 08 $30 −$9 -32%
BNP Paribas Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Casper Ruud Mar 08 $20 +$3 +13%
BNP Paribas Open: Marcos Giron vs Jakub Mensik Mar 07 $30 +$10 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 97¢ $300 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 96¢ $10 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 50¢ $10 2h
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 16¢ $6 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 14¢ $5 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Jannik Sinner 87¢ $10 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 90¢ $10 37d
Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Darderi BUY Ruud 93¢ $20 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov SELL Karen Khachanov 10¢ $29 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov BUY Karen Khachanov 35¢ $102 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov BUY Karen Khachanov 22¢ $5 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 98¢ $800 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 86¢ $100 41d
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud BUY Casper Ruud 94¢ $100 54d
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 90¢ $10 54d
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 86¢ $10 54d
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud SELL Casper Ruud 69¢ $15 54d
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud BUY Casper Ruud 32¢ $7 54d
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Patrick Kypson 51¢ $10 59d
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas SELL Stefanos Tsitsipas 53¢ $12 59d
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 43¢ $10 59d
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Zizou Bergs BUY Flavio Cobolli 96¢ $3,900 67d
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Zizou Bergs BUY Flavio Cobolli 97¢ $100 67d
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Alexander Zverev 97¢ $691 68d
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 3¢ $1 68d
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 31¢ $5 68d
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 21¢ $5 68d
BMW Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 97¢ $3,235 69d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner BUY Carlos Alcaraz 4¢ $1 70d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner SELL Carlos Alcaraz 5¢ $1 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.17 · official $206.17 (match) · 380 history records