Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:12:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x488c…a2da
sports · 1069 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
−$1,517 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,712 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$447
Realized−$1,712
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses542 / 508
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1050 / 1069
History coverage229d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 14 History 1050 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$370
7 days+$484
14 days+$319
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Under 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+65%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $22 $12 −$10 (-46%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-40%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-86%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-03? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? No 56¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
ITF Wuning: Han Shi vs Ankita Raina Ankita Raina 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Centurion: Stefan Vujic vs Stefano Napolitano Stefan Vujic 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Ger Jun 14 $15 −$7 -45%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $61 −$2 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$3 -6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 AND Jun 14 $5 +$27 +528%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $75 −$74 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$84 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 +$41 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$33 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 +$23 +74%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $101 +$21 +21%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$11 +52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$17 +83%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$64 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 +$28 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$36 +70%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $202 −$48 -24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$88 +44%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $101 +$44 +44%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $101 +$55 +54%
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $51 +$31 +62%
Romania vs. Wales: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $51 +$49 +97%
United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $601 +$30 +5%
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $101 +$46 +46%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $101 +$53 +52%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $102 −$101 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $703 +$5 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $135 −$131 -98%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $202 −$200 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar: O/U 3.5 May 31 $202 +$110 +54%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $101 +$3 +3%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $1,701 +$29 +2%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $151 +$72 +48%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $101 +$63 +62%
ITF Wuning: Han Shi vs Ankita Raina May 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 28 $1,502 +$61 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% +$1,460
other 40% −$2,570
world 3% −$372
crypto 1% −$190
politics 0% −$33
culture 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Ger SELL 6¢ $9 6m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $101 10m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 56¢ $59 15m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $61 15m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Ger BUY 18¢ $41 36m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $49 45m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 18¢ $41 46m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $48 46m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 53¢ $47 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $61 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $101 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 6¢ $5 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Ger BUY 10¢ $15 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $20 8h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 8h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $34 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $134 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $253 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 56¢ $101 19h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 AND BUY 16¢ $5 19h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $10 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +62.1% +46.7% 73% 73% +14.3%
≤30d 98 +3.6% -6.2% 55% 49% -9.7%
≤90d 624 -0.6% -10.0% 51% 49% -7.6%
all 1050 +1.5% -8.1% 52% 50% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 50% -13.1%
10% -16.9% 49% -21.4%
15% -25.0% 47% -29.0%
20% -32.3% 41% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.92 · official $531.93 · 2446 history records