Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:15:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x488d…9402
other · 21 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$13 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$32
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%
Chart Positions 5 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $5 $26 +$21 (+426%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Yes 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Yes 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Yes 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 98% +$7
sports 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -33.8% -40.1% 19% 19% -24.1%
≤30d 16 -33.8% -40.1% 19% 19% -24.1%
≤90d 16 -33.8% -40.1% 19% 19% -24.1%
all 16 -33.8% -40.1% 19% 19% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 19% -24.1%
10% -45.9% 19% -31.4%
15% -51.1% 19% -38.0%
20% -55.9% 19% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.06 · official $32.06 (match) · 24 history records