Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x488e…ea2e sports 353 markets active 1d ago coverage 56d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,287 (-2%) realized −$2,287 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%164W / 187L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day36.2pace
Fees−$1,456est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$8,468
crypto 20% +$8,337
world 13% −$4,437
politics 3% −$166
other 0% −$280
weather 0% −$282
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -34.2% -40.5% 46% 43% -42.0%
≤30d 253 -30.7% -37.3% 35% 30% -23.6%
≤90d 351 -11.7% -20.1% 47% 39% -13.3%
all 351 -11.7% -20.1% 47% 39% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 39% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 29% -21.6%
15% -34.7% 26% -29.1%
20% -41.1% 22% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +13% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$245 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$2,287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses164 / 187
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1,456
Open positions1
Markets (closed)351 / 353
History coverage56d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $98 −$96 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $65 +$51 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$9 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $159 +$23 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $142 +$33 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $98 +$48 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $34 −$33 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $186 −$14 -8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $241 +$52 +21%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 −$31 -60%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $195 −$193 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $379 −$216 -57%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $88 −$86 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $312 +$60 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$36 +69%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $349 −$209 -60%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $112 +$27 +24%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $400 −$288 -72%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $236 +$188 +79%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 10 $249 −$12 -5%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $42 −$42 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $23 +$19 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $966 −$171 -18%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $68 +$95 +140%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$30 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $200 −$196 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $576 −$569 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $2,018 −$1,179 -58%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $571 −$558 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $455 −$447 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 06 $262 −$216 -82%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 05 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$10 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 05 $2,742 −$1,772 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? Jun 05 $334 −$334 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 05 $238 −$238 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $105 −$98 -94%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $119 −$18 -16%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 05 $140 +$228 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 2d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 93¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL No 1¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 30¢ $91 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 30¢ $6 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 82¢ $98 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $29 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $23 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $24 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $33 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $33 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $7 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 84¢ $7 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 15¢ $6 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 15¢ $7 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 15¢ $2 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 15¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.83 · official $5.83 (match) · 2256 history records