Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4892…b8ce other 85 markets active 6d ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate67%50W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$2
politics 33% +$2
sports 22% −$8
crypto 6% +$22
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 +4.5% -5.5% 92% 8% +0.4%
≤90d 32 +1.8% -7.9% 94% 3% -5.0%
all 75 -14.0% -22.2% 67% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 5% -9.3%
10% -29.6% 4% -18.0%
15% -36.4% 1% -25.9%
20% -42.7% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses50 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)75 / 85
History coverage156d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No 79¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? No 73¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in May 2026? Jun 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 25? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 22 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? May 22 $41 +$21 +52%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? Apr 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 31? Apr 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 1? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 29? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on March 17? Mar 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 17? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Kigali: Joel Schwaerzler vs Stefano Napolitano Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Hersonissos: Harry Wendelken vs Toby Samuel Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jeju SK FC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 7? Mar 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 07 $9 $0 +0%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Mar 07 $7 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 6d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 11d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 11d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 11d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 11d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 21d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 21d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 21d
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 26d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 26d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 26d
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $14 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? BUY Down 64¢ $41 33d
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 47d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 65d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 65d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 65d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 71d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 71d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 71d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 71d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.96 · official $104.21 (match) · 160 history records