Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:21:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4895…f59a sports 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$4
sports 23% −$3
politics 23% −$3
economics 11% −$1
world 8% −$1
culture 6% −$1
crypto 5% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
all 125 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 115
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage156d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? No 97¢ 97¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $37 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 29 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 27 $95 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $176 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 26 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 26 $265 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 26 $127 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 26 $42 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 26 $4 $0 +4%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $85 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $189 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $193 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $177 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $179 −$1 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $161 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $41 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $37 7d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $37 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $31 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 15d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 91¢ $34 27d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $35 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 96¢ $46 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $46 41d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 117d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 117d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 117d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 117d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 95¢ $42 117d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $42 117d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $45 117d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $45 117d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $38 117d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $38 117d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $38 117d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $38 117d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $45 118d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $45 118d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $38 118d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $38 118d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $40 118d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $40 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $35 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $35 118d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $45 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.73 · official $40.73 (match) · 527 history records