Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4897…9ae8 crypto 421 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-3%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%233W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$4
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$66
other 1% −$2
sports 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +16.8% +5.7% 36% 36% -28.8%
≤30d 15 +30.3% +17.9% 53% 47% -14.0%
≤90d 414 -3.9% -13.0% 56% 51% -14.5%
all 414 -3.9% -13.0% 56% 51% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 51% -14.5%
10% -21.4% 43% -22.7%
15% -29.0% 34% -30.1%
20% -35.9% 26% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses233 / 181
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)414 / 421
History coverage68d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +324%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +367%
Spread: Indonesia (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Indonesia (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +162%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Indonesia vs. Oman: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $1 $0 +30%
Spread: Indonesia (-2.5) Jun 05 $1 +$2 +198%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 18 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 18 $7 +$6 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 18 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 18 $1 +$2 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 18 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 18 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 34m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 6d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 6d
Spread: Indonesia (-2.5) BUY Indonesia 26¢ $1 6d
Spread: Indonesia (-1.5) BUY Indonesia 46¢ $1 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Spread: Indonesia (-1.5) BUY Indonesia 53¢ $1 8d
Spread: Indonesia (-1.5) BUY Indonesia 52¢ $1 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8d
Indonesia vs. Oman: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 10d
Spread: Indonesia (-2.5) SELL Indonesia 100¢ $3 10d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 10d
Spread: Indonesia (-2.5) BUY Indonesia 33¢ $1 10d
Indonesia vs. Oman: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.99 (match) · 1212 history records