Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x4899…9db1 sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,152 (+26%) realized +$1,152 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate65%24W / 13L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$374
7 days+$561
14 days+$561
30 days+$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,142
other 4% $0
crypto 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +67.4% +51.4% 100% 67% +69.4%
≤30d 5 +38.3% +25.2% 80% 60% +35.1%
≤90d 13 +40.4% +27.1% 92% 54% +36.7%
all 37 +8.0% -2.3% 65% 43% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 43% +14.5%
10% -11.6% 43% +3.5%
15% -20.2% 41% -6.5%
20% -28.0% 38% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$98 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$1,152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses24 / 13
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage225d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $88 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $371 +$374 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 19 $185 +$186 +101%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $100 +$90 +90%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 26 $190 −$190 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 18 $98 +$92 +93%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $90 $0 +0%
Wuning 2: Linang Xiao vs Blake Ellis Apr 23 $294 +$106 +36%
Capitals vs. Rangers Apr 13 $211 +$219 +104%
Kings vs. Nets Apr 05 $106 +$106 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 17 $1 $0 +0%
Red Wings vs. Devils Mar 17 $188 −$188 -100%
Sabres vs. Penguins Mar 08 $100 +$89 +89%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5 Feb 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-2.5) Feb 02 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Magic (-4.5) Jan 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) Jan 12 $368 +$354 +96%
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5) Jan 09 $190 +$182 +96%
Spread: Patriots (-11.5) Jan 06 $99 +$91 +92%
76ers vs. Bulls Jan 01 $191 +$184 +96%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $10 −$10 -100%
California vs. Hawaii Dec 26 $102 +$90 +89%
Rams vs. Seahawks Dec 20 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 19 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 16 $10 $0 +0%
Packers vs. Broncos Dec 16 $100 +$105 +104%
Jets vs. Canadiens Dec 05 $97 −$97 -100%
Stars vs. Devils Dec 03 $97 −$2 -2%
Trail Blazers vs. Bucks Nov 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Bills vs. Texans: O/U 43.5 Nov 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5 Nov 20 $51 +$44 +85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on November 1 Nov 15 $50 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Canadiens Nov 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $88 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $371 5d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $185 16d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $100 20d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $190 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 51¢ $98 47d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $88 47d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $88 62d
Wuning 2: Linang Xiao vs Blake Ellis BUY Blake Ellis 73¢ $294 71d
Capitals vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 49¢ $211 80d
Kings vs. Nets BUY Nets 50¢ $106 87d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $90 87d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 93d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 99d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 107d
Red Wings vs. Devils BUY Devils 50¢ $188 107d
Sabres vs. Penguins BUY Sabres 53¢ $100 111d
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 131d
Spread: Hornets (-2.5) BUY Grizzlies 52¢ $102 147d
Spread: Magic (-4.5) BUY Grizzlies 51¢ $96 160d
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) BUY Raptors 51¢ $368 166d
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5) BUY Timberwolves 51¢ $190 169d
Spread: Patriots (-11.5) BUY Patriots 52¢ $99 171d
76ers vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 51¢ $191 180d
California vs. Hawaii BUY Hawaii 53¢ $102 182d
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? BUY Yes $10 186d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes $12 187d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes $3 190d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes $1 190d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes $6 190d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.96 · official $87.96 (match) · 125 history records