Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:46:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
48 0x489c…3733 sports 159 markets active 12h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate78%122W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$1
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$7
other 18% −$36
weather 14% +$14
crypto 4% −$5
politics 3% +$1
economics 1% +$4
finance 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
world 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +11.9% +1.3% 73% 64% +3.0%
≤30d 62 -8.0% -16.8% 73% 47% -15.6%
≤90d 145 -1.1% -10.5% 79% 46% -6.4%
all 156 -0.9% -10.3% 78% 47% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 47% -11.2%
10% -18.9% 32% -19.7%
15% -26.8% 24% -27.4%
20% -33.9% 15% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses122 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)156 / 159
History coverage220d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $3 $0 +5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $2 $0 +13%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $5 +$3 +61%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Entropy (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 03 $5 +$1 +21%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $5 +$1 +14%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Hokori (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 03 $5 +$2 +40%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on Jun Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $5 +$1 +16%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $5 +$2 +34%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Liquid PH (BO5) - MPL Philip Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 82°F or higher on May 28? Jun 01 $4 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Lilmix (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 01 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 70°F or higher on May 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $3 +$1 +17%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 29 $5 +$1 +13%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $5 +$3 +61%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $2 $0 +0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 26? May 27 $3 +$2 +61%
ITF Gimcheon: Sungbeen Sim vs Tai Leonard Sach May 27 $5 +$1 +17%
Centurion (Doubles): Winter/Zahraj vs Hurrion/Hussey May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026? May 26 $3 $0 +3%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $3 +$2 +70%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 22, 2026? May 24 $3 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 35h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 97¢ $3 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 89¢ $3 6d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 63¢ $3 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 95¢ $3 8d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 64¢ $3 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 64¢ $3 8d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 83¢ $3 12d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 88¢ $2 12d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 95¢ $6 12d
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Athletics 90¢ $3 12d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes 69¢ $5 14d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 14d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 96¢ $5 14d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 98¢ $5 14d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl BUY GLYPH 87¢ $5 14d
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Entropy (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Young Ninjas 82¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.61 · official $14.61 (match) · 287 history records