Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x489e…4a4a other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-4%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$4
world 34% +$4
crypto 13% −$41
politics 6% +$1
economics 4% $0
finance 3% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 13 +2.7% -7.0% 38% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 13 +2.7% -7.0% 38% 8% -9.0%
all 40 -3.2% -12.4% 32% 5% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 5% -13.4%
10% -20.8% 2% -21.7%
15% -28.5% 0% -29.2%
20% -35.5% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage302d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $32 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $31 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $62 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $70 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $31 +$1 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $17 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 01 $1 $0 -3%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Feb 01 $4 −$3 -80%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $66 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-23? Nov 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 08 $1 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 08 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $4 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $5 $0 +3%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Aug 27 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $4500 on August 22? Aug 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $33 26m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $1 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $32 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $12 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $20 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $20 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $18 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $13 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $23 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $11 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $34 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $32 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $36 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 17d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $36 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $36 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $30 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records