Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
48 0x48a4…8c2e sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$359 (+45%) realized +$359 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$75
crypto 23% −$90
other 8% +$239
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +28.2% +16.0% 46% 46% +16.1%
≤30d 13 +28.2% +16.0% 46% 46% +16.1%
≤90d 13 +28.2% +16.0% 46% 46% +16.1%
all 13 +28.2% +16.0% 46% 46% +16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.0% 46% +16.1%
10% +4.9% 38% +5.0%
15% -5.3% 38% -5.1%
20% -14.5% 38% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +76% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$55 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$359
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$22 +84%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $71 +$54 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $102 +$155 +152%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $66 +$239 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $41 +$131 +319%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $108 −$42 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 32¢ $102 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 56¢ $71 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $102 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $306 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $66 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $41 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 27h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 10¢ $21 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 29h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 82¢ $53 32h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 69¢ $79 32h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 29¢ $66 32h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 58¢ $40 32h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $108 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 33h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records