Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48a4…5419 crypto 450 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,564 (-12%) realized −$1,564 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%148W / 302L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day42.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$402
14 days−$160
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,656
sports 3% +$50
other 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -37.8% -43.7% 24% 19% -19.1%
≤30d 267 -21.9% -29.3% 32% 24% -10.1%
≤90d 450 -22.4% -29.8% 33% 26% -20.8%
all 450 -22.4% -29.8% 33% 26% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.8% 26% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -36.5% 22% -28.3%
15% -42.7% 19% -35.3%
20% -48.3% 16% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$16 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,564
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses148 / 302
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)450 / 450
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day42.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 450 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $106 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $79 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$33 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$22 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$11 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$25 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $56 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$161 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$9 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $64 −$62 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$31 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$6 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $8 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $27 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records