Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x48a6…7791 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$407 (+7%) realized +$407 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%33W / 20L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days+$460
14 days+$449
30 days+$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$116
sports 18% +$301
crypto 5% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +8.4% -2.0% 67% 60% -2.1%
≤30d 53 +4.1% -5.8% 62% 57% -2.3%
≤90d 53 +4.1% -5.8% 62% 57% -2.3%
all 53 +4.1% -5.8% 62% 57% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 57% -2.3%
10% -14.8% 43% -11.7%
15% -23.0% 30% -20.2%
20% -30.6% 25% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$58 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$407
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses33 / 20
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage8d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $202 +$90 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$23 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $35 −$9 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $181 +$39 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $112 −$82 -74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $711 −$691 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$11 +218%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$52 +26%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $454 +$215 +47%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $454 +$239 +52%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $112 −$79 -71%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $604 +$88 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $201 +$22 +11%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $204 +$153 +75%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $201 +$40 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $92 +$118 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $82 +$15 +18%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $201 +$52 +26%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $201 +$32 +16%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $31 −$20 -65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $222 −$130 -58%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 −$32 -77%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$65 +129%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$44 -86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$29 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -35%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$5 -82%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $29 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 82¢ $181 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 1¢ $21 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $112 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $508 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records