Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

48 0x48aa…0d8a other 22 markets active 23h ago coverage 12d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$22 (+20%) realized +$22 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate41%9W / 13L

Drawdown44%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit32%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$6

7 days+$21

14 days+$21

30 days+$21

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-3.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+7.1%	-3.1%	41%	41%	+11.4%
≤30d	22	+7.1%	-3.1%	41%	41%	+11.4%
≤90d	22	+7.1%	-3.1%	41%	41%	+11.4%
all	22	+7.1%	-3.1%	41%	41%	+11.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.1%	41%	+11.4%
10%	-12.4%	36%	+0.8%
15%	-20.8%	36%	-9.0%
20%	-28.6%	27%	-17.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +32% → late -18% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$22

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses9 / 13

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 22

History coverage12d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown44%

Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$5	−$4	-72%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	+$12	+120%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$3	+$8	+259%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	Jun 14	$3	+$7	+223%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 14	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2	+$9	+442%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 14	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$4	+$2	+50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$7	−$5	-64%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$25	+$4	+18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$10	+$10	+103%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$4	+$7	+165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$4	+$2	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	32¢	$2	23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	5¢	$1	2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	19¢	$5	2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$22	2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	32¢	$10	2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	99¢	$11	2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	27¢	$3	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	SELL Over	99¢	$10	3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	BUY Over	30¢	$3	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$2	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$6	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	16¢	$3	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	30¢	$3	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	97¢	$30	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$25	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$0	4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	97¢	$20	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$6	6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	66¢	$4	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records