Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x48af…0910
other · 1653 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$25 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$68 · open +$43
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$275
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1300 / 332
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions24
Markets (closed)1632 / 1653
History coverage202d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%
Chart Positions 24 History 1632 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$12
14 days+$11
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 97¢ $146 $192 +$46 (+31%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 94¢ 86¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 92¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 86¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 97¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 97¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 81¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Valencia vs. Joventut Valencia 75¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 85¢ 78¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 82¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 97¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 55¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin FC Bayern Munchen 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 45¢ 17¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-62%)
Will GV CD San José win on 2026-05-16? No 95¢ 52¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
ITF Decatur: Sahaja Yamalapalli vs Carlota Moreno Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lina Glushko Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +32%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Will Estonia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3 $0 +7%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 $0 +16%
Will Cerro Largo FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 $0 +24%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $3 $0 +13%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $4 $0 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $4 $0 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $3 $0 +7%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $4 $0 +6%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 08 $4 $0 +4%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 08 $5 $0 +10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $2 $0 +7%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $2 $0 +15%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Caijsa Hennemann Jun 04 $2 +$1 +34%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $3 $0 +14%
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $3 $0 +3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Harlequins win? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 02 $2 $0 +8%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +24%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $3 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $13 +$4 +28%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $10 +$3 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% −$66
sports 23% −$49
politics 5% +$38
crypto 4% +$1
tech 4% +$31
world 2% +$22
weather 0% −$2
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 97¢ $2 1h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $2 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $2 1h
Valencia vs. Joventut BUY Valencia 75¢ $3 1h
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin BUY FC Bayern Munchen 82¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $3 1h
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 75¢ $3 2d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 96¢ $3 2d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 91¢ $2 2d
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lina Glushko BUY Madison Brengle 96¢ $3 2d
ITF Decatur: Sahaja Yamalapalli vs Carlota Moreno BUY Sahaja Yamalapalli 87¢ $2 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $3 3d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 92¢ $5 3d
Will Estonia win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 89¢ $1 3d
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 93¢ $3 3d
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 99¢ $2 3d
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 79¢ $2 3d
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 99¢ $2 3d
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 91¢ $2 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $3 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $4 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 4d
Will Cerro Largo FC win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 80¢ $2 4d
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 88¢ $3 4d
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 86¢ $2 4d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 96¢ $4 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 94¢ $4 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +12.5% +1.8% 96% 39% +3.4%
≤30d 105 -4.4% -13.5% 80% 50% -9.4%
≤90d 539 -5.6% -14.6% 77% 52% -14.0%
all 1632 -2.0% -11.3% 80% 56% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 56% -10.9%
10% -19.8% 28% -19.4%
15% -27.6% 12% -27.2%
20% -34.7% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.08 · official $275.08 (match) · 3500 history records