Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:20:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48b0…a348 crypto 1487 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (216 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$359 (+23%) realized −$6,615 · open +$6,974
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%75W / 419L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day215.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7,366
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (216 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 426 -50.5% -55.2% 2% 2% -81.8%
≤30d 494 -38.4% -44.3% 15% 15% -42.9%
≤90d 494 -38.4% -44.3% 15% 15% -42.9%
all 494 -38.4% -44.3% 15% 15% -42.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover215.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.3% 15% -42.9%
10% ← realistic here -49.6% 14% -48.4%
15% -54.5% 3% -53.4%
20% -58.9% 3% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -83% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$7,117
Realized−$6,615
Unrealized+$6,974
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses75 / 419
Open positions87
Markets (closed)494 / 1487
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day215.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 87 History 494 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $152 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $151 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $151 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $151 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $3 $151 +$148 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $3 $148 +$146 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $3 $148 +$146 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $3 $148 +$146 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $148 +$148 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $3 $148 +$145 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $3 $148 +$145 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $3 $148 +$145 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $3 $148 +$145 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $3 $148 +$145 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $3 $148 +$145 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $3 $148 +$145 (+4850%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $76 +$74 (+4950%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $76 +$74 (+4950%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $76 +$74 (+4950%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $76 +$74 (+4950%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $76 +$74 (+4950%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $76 +$74 (+4950%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 413 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,117.28 · official $7,225.52 · 3500 history records