Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48b7…d9f3 crypto 455 markets active 21h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate81%369W / 86L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$11
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 7% -4.2%
≤30d 448 -1.5% -10.9% 81% 15% -8.8%
≤90d 452 -1.7% -11.1% 81% 15% -9.0%
all 455 -1.7% -11.0% 81% 15% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 15% -9.0%
10% -19.5% 9% -17.7%
15% -27.3% 6% -25.6%
20% -34.4% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses369 / 86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)455 / 455
History coverage90d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 455 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +198%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1024 history records