Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48b8…c188 crypto 743 markets active 3d ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-2%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate60%437W / 286L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$16
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$32
crypto 18% +$11
other 14% −$8
tech 11% −$8
world 11% +$1
sports 10% −$15
finance 9% +$13
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -7.4% -16.2% 54% 46% -21.4%
≤30d 115 -6.1% -15.1% 54% 37% -11.0%
≤90d 315 -4.2% -13.3% 58% 31% -12.0%
all 723 -1.7% -11.0% 60% 30% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 30% -11.3%
10% -19.5% 20% -19.8%
15% -27.3% 13% -27.5%
20% -34.4% 7% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses437 / 286
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)723 / 743
History coverage225d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 723 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -15%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL No 85¢ $1 3d
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $2 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 93¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? SELL No 96¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 92¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2984 history records