Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
48 0x48b9…46e2 politics 155 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,349 (+1%) realized +$2,349 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate26%40W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,114per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$94
other 34% −$255
sports 10% +$2,685
world 3% +$9
culture 2% −$4
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$25
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 +5.4% -4.7% 16% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 94 -6.7% -15.6% 9% 4% -9.0%
all 155 +3.5% -6.3% 26% 12% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 12% -8.3%
10% -15.3% 12% -17.1%
15% -23.5% 10% -25.1%
20% -31.0% 10% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,464) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$7 · ×11.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.09 per $1 lost it wins $4.09
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,349
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses40 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 155
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,114
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $235 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,862 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,711 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $4,929 −$5 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,257 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,782 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $931 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $319 +$2 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $935 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,398 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $939 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,680 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $880 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $61 +$38 +62%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $73 +$65 +90%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,559 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,176 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $216 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $403 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,811 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $262 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $311 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,461 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $310 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 26 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $342 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $58 +$29 +50%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $813 −$1 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 20 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $1,964 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $3,028 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,498 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $908 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $791 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $987 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 18m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 1h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $858 3d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $859 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $858 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $859 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $852 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $853 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $850 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $851 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $943 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $944 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $784 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $785 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $930 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $932 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $930 8d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $931 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 99¢ $319 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $934 10d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $935 10d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $831 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $832 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $818 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $819 11d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $937 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $939 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $812 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $813 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,001 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 535 history records