Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48bf…f7e2 sports 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$718 (-7%) realized −$718 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%73W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$211
7 days−$584
14 days−$380
30 days−$621
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$810
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -11.4% -19.8% 33% 33% -46.5%
≤30d 79 -14.1% -22.3% 35% 34% -21.8%
≤90d 154 -18.4% -26.2% 34% 33% -28.9%
all 179 -7.9% -16.6% 41% 40% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 40% -17.1%
10% -24.6% 37% -25.0%
15% -31.9% 34% -32.3%
20% -38.6% 31% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$47 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$718
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses73 / 106
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage189d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $68 +$11 +16%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $87 +$9 +11%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs HAVU - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 15 $75 −$69 -91%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $62 +$93 +149%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $71 +$84 +118%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $16 +$22 +134%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$73 +473%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +250%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $38 +$81 +216%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $46 +$54 +118%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 08 $56 +$116 +206%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $70 +$58 +82%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $111 −$111 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $200 −$78 -39%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $112 −$112 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $166 +$224 +135%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $84 +$54 +64%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $67 +$53 +79%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 03 $88 −$88 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Reci May 31 $24 +$70 +291%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner May 31 $30 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 31 $100 +$159 +158%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG - Map 2 Winner May 31 $124 +$106 +86%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner May 30 $114 +$135 +118%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Tricked - Map 1 Winner May 30 $39 −$32 -83%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - European Pro League Seri May 30 $50 +$80 +161%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $115 −$115 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $51 +$74 +145%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Pl May 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $66 +$81 +123%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $79 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 86¢ $68 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 100¢ $97 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 90¢ $87 2h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 59¢ $7 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 47¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 45¢ $61 26h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 54¢ $52 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 54¢ $45 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 33¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 100¢ $155 2d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 40¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 40¢ $33 2d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 40¢ $8 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 46¢ $67 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 39¢ $7 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 39¢ $52 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $155 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 45¢ $71 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $38 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $16 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $6 4d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $82 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $88 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 17¢ $15 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 5¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY Donstu Esports 41¢ $58 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $119 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $38 5d
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? BUY Under 28¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 435 history records