Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:33:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48c1…a929 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$1
world 42% +$3
sports 12% −$11
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.9% -13.0% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 27 +1.0% -8.7% 63% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 38 +0.4% -9.1% 58% 5% -9.4%
all 53 -3.4% -12.6% 45% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 4% -9.8%
10% -21.0% 2% -18.5%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage540d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $21 +$1 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -48%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $88 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $19 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $169 −$1 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $6 −$1 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $81 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $117 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $86 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $83 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $8 +$1 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $110 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $34 +$4 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 23 $8 −$1 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $40 −$3 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $186 $0 +0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $32 +$1 +3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $44 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 23 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 23 $274 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $299 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 20 $9 $0 +0%
Illinois State vs. Indiana State Feb 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $45 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $11 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $11 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $21 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $38 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $18 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $3 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $44 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $19 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.73 · official $44.73 (match) · 223 history records