Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48c3…0701 sports 1097 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$238 (-5%) realized −$282 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate45%490W / 607L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day44.4pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$23
14 days−$58
30 days−$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$167
other 19% −$32
crypto 11% −$98
politics 3% −$9
world 2% +$19
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% +$4
finance 0% +$4
culture 0% +$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -6.6% -15.5% 37% 4% -15.4%
≤30d 377 -34.2% -40.5% 28% 4% -26.9%
≤90d 1097 -6.1% -15.1% 45% 30% -15.1%
all 1097 -6.1% -15.1% 45% 30% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 30% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 24% -23.2%
15% -30.6% 20% -30.6%
20% -37.4% 16% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$282
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses490 / 607
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1097 / 1097
History coverage56d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day44.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1097 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Kosovo (-1.5) Andorra 56¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Over $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Slovakia vs. Montenegro end in a draw? No 30¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? No 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India India 46¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valencia vs. Joventut Joventut 29¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will CSyD Macará win on 2026-05-28? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 5.5 Over $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Chile leading at halftime? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 30¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs against All authority (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage against All authority 35¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Belgium leading at halftime? No $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
CD La Serena vs. CD Limache: O/U 3.5 Under 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Under $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Over 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs MIBR 24¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-22? No $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? No 52¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
CD Universidad Católica vs. CSD Colo-Colo: O/U 3.5 Over 60¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5 Under 16¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$2 -40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$3 -53%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 −$2 -4%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -10%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$1 -11%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -13%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 +$5 +56%
Will Galway United FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Drogheda United FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 $0 +7%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $4 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$2 -41%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -37%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $10 $0 -5%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 $0 -0%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 10 $4 $0 -1%
Orebro SK vs. GIF Sundsvall: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $3 $0 -3%
ITF Zagreb: Adrienn Nagy vs Eszter Meri Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 46¢ $2 15m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $2 20m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 51¢ $5 47m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 95¢ $5 53m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 37¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 51¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 2h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $5 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $5 2h
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $5 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 3h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Curaçao 65¢ $4 4h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Curaçao 65¢ $1 4h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 63¢ $5 4h
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 24h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 44¢ $5 24h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Morocco 86¢ $5 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 25h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL No 57¢ $5 25h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 87¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records