Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:55:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
48 0x48c7…4764 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate67%20W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$21
sports 5% +$1
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +33.7% +21.0% 67% 37% -11.8%
≤30d 30 +33.7% +21.0% 67% 37% -11.8%
≤90d 30 +33.7% +21.0% 67% 37% -11.8%
all 30 +33.7% +21.0% 67% 37% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.0% 37% -11.8%
10% +9.4% 27% -20.3%
15% -1.2% 17% -28.0%
20% -10.8% 13% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage76d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $189 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $139 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $115 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$9 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $12 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $12 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $13 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $12 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $23 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $12 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $22 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $23 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $24 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $24 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $24 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $20 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $21 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $24 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $12 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $12 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.66 · official $0.00 · 149 history records