Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:08:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48c9…a894 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$245 (-7%) realized −$242 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$379
14 days−$292
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$1,181
sports 9% +$891
world 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +0.2% -9.3% 23% 15% -20.7%
≤30d 32 -2.9% -12.2% 28% 22% -16.1%
≤90d 32 -2.9% -12.2% 28% 22% -16.1%
all 32 -2.9% -12.2% 28% 22% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 22% -16.1%
10% -20.6% 22% -24.1%
15% -28.3% 19% -31.5%
20% -35.3% 16% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$75 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized−$242
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage10d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spain to win the second half? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $19 −$3 -13%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $154 +$107 +69%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $72 −$13 -19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $502 −$500 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $206 −$161 -78%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$45 -22%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $77 +$118 +153%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$82 -80%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $102 −$29 -28%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $130 −$4 -3%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$937 +915%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 +$15 +10%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $163 −$160 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 +$12 +24%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -76%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$3 -17%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $101 −$45 -45%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -29%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $104 +$61 +59%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $102 +$102 +101%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $222 +$89 +40%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $59 −$57 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 12¢ $58 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 28¢ $142 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 28¢ $110 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $72 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $502 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 5¢ $38 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 37¢ $194 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $21 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $156 4d
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 35¢ $73 4d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $77 4d
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.42 · official $307.42 (match) · 72 history records