Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x48ca…6645
crypto · 10 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$79 -33%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$55 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 0 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$55
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$40 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $61 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 85% −$20
other 15% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +31.8% +19.2% 40% 40% -30.5%
≤30d 10 +31.8% +19.2% 40% 40% -30.5%
≤90d 10 +31.8% +19.2% 40% 40% -30.5%
all 10 +31.8% +19.2% 40% 40% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.2% 40% -30.5%
10% +7.8% 30% -37.2%
15% -2.6% 30% -43.2%
20% -12.1% 20% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records