Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48cc…2188 crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (216 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$172 (-3%) realized −$164 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day216.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$535
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (216 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -29.6% -36.3% 45% 28% -18.5%
≤30d 40 -29.6% -36.3% 45% 28% -18.5%
≤90d 40 -29.6% -36.3% 45% 28% -18.5%
all 40 -29.6% -36.3% 45% 28% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover216.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.3% 28% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -42.4% 18% -26.3%
15% -47.9% 5% -33.4%
20% -53.0% 2% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$40 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day216.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 58¢ 55¢ $75 $71 −$4 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $459 −$143 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $332 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $348 +$28 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $87 −$13 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $355 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $433 +$36 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $179 −$44 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $411 −$65 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $153 −$44 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $205 −$29 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $384 −$31 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $151 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $152 +$40 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $171 +$19 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $273 +$31 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $152 +$47 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $108 −$68 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $112 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $72 −$20 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $71 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$20 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $28 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $89 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $51 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $47 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $172 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $8 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $83 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $32 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $56 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $192 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.24 · official $87.48 · 227 history records