Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:30:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
48 0x48cc…b11c crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate72%38W / 15L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$5
crypto 9% +$10
politics 3% −$7
sports 0% +$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 22 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 53 -0.7% -10.2% 72% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 8% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 8% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 8% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses38 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage608d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 11 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 08 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? Jun 01 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 28 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16? May 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? May 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? May 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 30? May 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 24? Apr 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? Apr 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Apr 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 4? Apr 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 26? Apr 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 18? Mar 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Mar 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 12? Feb 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? Feb 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $16 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 31? Feb 04 $31 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of December 1 above $90? Jan 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in November? Dec 04 $10 $0 +1%
Pistons vs. Magic Jan 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 25 $18 $0 +1%
Will Davante Adams be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Hailey Welch jail in 2024? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Supreme Court term limits in 2024? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump be Speaker by January 1? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 30 $278 $0 +0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 27 $2,503 $0 -0%
Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 27 $835 $0 +0%
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 27 $556 $0 +0%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 27 $1,391 $0 +0%
Will Drake London be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 26 $3,338 $0 -0%
Will Tyreek Hill be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 26 $556 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1? Nov 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Chargers vs. Browns Nov 11 $11 +$9 +89%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $12 +$8 +60%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-10-25? Oct 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $32 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 40d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 49d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 54d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 56d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $32 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $32 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $32 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $32 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $32 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $32 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $32 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $33 111d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 127d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 128d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 98¢ $16 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $31 132d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? BUY No 99¢ $31 133d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 198 history records