Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48cd…6035 crypto 1518 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 128d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$457 (+1%) realized +$457 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate84%1273W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$36
14 days−$154
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -0.3% -9.8% 91% 10% -8.9%
≤30d 525 -0.4% -9.9% 89% 9% -9.8%
≤90d 1116 +0.3% -9.3% 86% 10% -9.5%
all 1518 +0.5% -9.1% 84% 15% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 15% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$23 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$457
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1273 / 245
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1518 / 1518
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1518 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$5 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$4 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $18 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $40 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $13 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $12 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $40 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $40 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records