Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

48 0x48cf…9c27 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$2,762 (+111%) realized +$2,770 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +125% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +96% what you keep after slip

Net edge+96%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown4%max

Avg bet$413per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$588now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+103.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+125.0%	+103.6%	75%	75%	+122.1%
≤30d	4	+125.0%	+103.6%	75%	75%	+122.1%
≤90d	4	+125.0%	+103.6%	75%	75%	+122.1%
all	4	+125.0%	+103.6%	75%	75%	+122.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+103.6%	75%	+122.1%
10%	+84.1%	75%	+100.8%
15%	+66.3%	75%	+81.4%
20%	+50.0%	50%	+63.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +146% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +125% · $-wt +146% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$944 vs −$103 · ×9.19 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×27.57 per $1 lost it wins $27.57

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$588

Realized+$2,770

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$413

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown4%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$495	$491	−$4 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$101	$97	−$4 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	Jun 23	$103	−$103	-100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	Jun 23	$306	+$343	+112%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$1,010	+$461	+46%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals	Jun 22	$459	+$2,030	+442%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$500	1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	SELL Yes	61¢	$243	10h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	BUY Yes	8¢	$103	11h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	37¢	$306	11h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	18¢	$459	14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1,010	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $587.85 · official $587.85 (match) · 11 history records