Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48cf…c7df sports 916 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,925 (-7%) realized −$11,845 · open −$80
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%487W / 423L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1,067est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$192
7 days−$1,149
14 days−$1,149
30 days−$9,142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$12,208
other 4% −$133
crypto 0% −$194
world 0% −$6
weather 0% −$60
politics 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -16.6% -24.6% 41% 41% -39.7%
≤30d 219 +1.2% -8.5% 58% 57% -19.8%
≤90d 520 -39.1% -44.9% 35% 34% -29.5%
all 910 -6.5% -15.4% 54% 53% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 53% -16.6%
10% -23.5% 50% -24.6%
15% -30.9% 41% -31.9%
20% -37.6% 33% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$143 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized−$11,845
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses487 / 423
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1,067
Open positions6
Markets (closed)910 / 916
History coverage148d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 910 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 44¢ $176 $134 −$43 (-24%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 65¢ 66¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 30¢ $105 $74 −$31 (-30%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 47¢ 46¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 65¢ 64¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Panama leading at halftime? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 171 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $117 +$82 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $61 +$39 +65%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $139 +$61 +44%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $143 +$57 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $109 −$108 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $104 −$103 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $206 −$204 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $16 +$12 +76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $89 −$88 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $149 −$148 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $125 −$124 -99%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $54 +$296 +550%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $193 −$190 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $164 +$133 +81%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $266 −$266 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $308 −$305 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $330 +$164 +50%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $96 +$74 +76%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $73 +$37 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $63 −$62 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $259 −$255 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $114 −$112 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $86 −$84 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 30 $7 +$4 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $181 −$179 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $220 −$33 -15%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 30 $269 −$265 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $155 +$145 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $647 −$640 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $277 +$38 +14%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $132 −$130 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $401 −$394 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $92 +$68 +73%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies May 30 $192 −$189 -99%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) May 30 $156 +$73 +47%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $140 +$100 +71%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 29 $191 −$188 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 29 $176 −$174 -99%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) May 29 $494 +$306 +62%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) May 29 $397 −$392 -99%
Chisinau: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Sumit Nagal May 29 $255 +$194 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $696 −$690 -99%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-2.5) vs Borges (+2.5) May 29 $711 −$708 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 29 $268 +$331 +123%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 29 $303 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 9m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 9m
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 10m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $67 8h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 65¢ $66 8h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $61 8h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $98 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $103 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $107 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $109 8h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $104 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $69 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $139 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $143 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $137 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No $0 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $8 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $20 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $16 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $89 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $149 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $76 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $125 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 36¢ $41 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 43¢ $51 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 44¢ $102 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $297 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 67¢ $190 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.31 · official $456.92 · 2231 history records