Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
48 0x48d1…e42b sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,558 (+26%) realized +$1,570 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$557
other 35% +$1,219
crypto 2% −$63
world 2% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+57.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +74.0% +57.5% 53% 50% +18.4%
≤30d 34 +74.0% +57.5% 53% 50% +18.4%
≤90d 34 +74.0% +57.5% 53% 50% +18.4%
all 34 +74.0% +57.5% 53% 50% +18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +57.5% 50% +18.4%
10% +42.4% 50% +7.1%
15% +28.6% 50% -3.3%
20% +16.0% 41% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late +84% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$96 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,268
Realized+$1,570
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions5
Markets (closed)34 / 43
History coverage4d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 75¢ 74¢ $650 $646 −$4 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Over 59¢ 57¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 32¢ 32¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $26 +$867 +3370%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $97 +$110 +114%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $97 −$97 -100%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $152 +$90 +60%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $127 −$127 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $508 −$508 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $327 +$450 +138%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $102 +$176 +172%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $495 +$259 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $103 −$63 -61%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 +$347 +338%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $202 +$15 +8%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $51 +$92 +180%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $81 +$44 +55%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $14 +$29 +209%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $202 +$93 +46%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $101 −$35 -34%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germa Jun 25 $142 +$137 +96%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $140 +$153 +109%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $50 +$137 +276%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $97 +$68 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $152 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 32¢ $82 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $253 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $152 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $655 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 13h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 13h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 21¢ $97 13h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $97 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $255 14h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $127 36h
Chris Wood: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $25 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 18¢ $51 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY 5¢ $22 37h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $152 37h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 37h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $102 37h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $193 37h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $133 37h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 36¢ $102 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $495 46h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $508 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AN BUY 17¢ $280 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $24 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 24¢ $40 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 57¢ $103 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $148 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,268.31 · official $1,268.31 (match) · 90 history records