Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

48 0x48d7…3745 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$112 (+25%) realized +$80 · open +$32

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +119% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +98% what you keep after slip

Net edge+98%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown90%max

Avg bet$113per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+98.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	3	+119.1%	+98.3%	67%	67%	+32.5%
≤90d	3	+119.1%	+98.3%	67%	67%	+32.5%
all	3	+119.1%	+98.3%	67%	67%	+32.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+98.3%	67%	+32.5%
10%	+79.3%	67%	+19.8%
15%	+62.0%	67%	+8.2%
20%	+46.1%	33%	-2.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +46% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +119% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$106 vs −$100 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$240

Realized+$80

Unrealized+$32

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage16d

Avg bet$113

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown90%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	86¢	99¢	$208	$240	+$32 (+15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$41	+$168	+414%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$99	+$43	+44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	86¢	$209	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	19¢	$41	7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$102	7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$99	16d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.12 · official $240.12 (match) · 6 history records