Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:31:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x48d9…227f sports 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,477 (-3%) realized −$1,487 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%49W / 67L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$412per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$479est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,546
7 days+$977
14 days+$1,164
30 days−$1,851
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$3,450
other 36% +$3,648
crypto 9% +$87
world 1% −$457
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -13.6% -21.9% 45% 45% -4.4%
≤30d 64 -13.6% -21.9% 44% 44% -14.4%
≤90d 76 -4.2% -13.3% 45% 45% -9.7%
all 116 -6.4% -15.4% 42% 42% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 42% -9.9%
10% -23.5% 42% -18.5%
15% -30.9% 41% -26.4%
20% -37.6% 37% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$585) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$501 vs −$369 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$503
Realized−$1,487
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses49 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$479
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 128
History coverage598d
Avg bet$412
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $493 $503 +$10 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $275 −$268 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $408 −$134 -33%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $999 −$577 -58%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $97 −$94 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $273 −$273 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $991 +$379 +38%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $640 +$334 +52%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $828 +$307 +37%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $207 −$203 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $301 +$233 +78%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $492 +$310 +63%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $534 −$523 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $266 −$261 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,060 −$1,056 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $372 +$295 +79%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $601 +$366 +61%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $298 −$252 -84%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $989 −$980 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $700 +$601 +86%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 +$13 +42%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,000 +$1,014 +101%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $585 +$464 +79%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 20 $801 +$2,103 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $495 −$484 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $358 −$350 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $545 +$310 +57%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $708 +$774 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $577 −$567 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $767 +$516 +67%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $795 −$694 -87%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $398 −$389 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $713 +$480 +67%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $513 −$501 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $518 +$1,487 +287%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $633 −$621 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $793 +$709 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $499 +$296 +59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $807 +$693 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $451 +$357 +79%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $519 −$509 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $511 −$500 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $617 −$606 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $494 −$484 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $509 −$502 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $521 +$593 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $534 −$528 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $518 +$215 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $501 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $265 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 30¢ $274 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 43¢ $408 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 26¢ $1 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 26¢ $418 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 26¢ $2 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 26¢ $1 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $11 5h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $988 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 27¢ $97 7h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 10¢ $49 7h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 10¢ $1 7h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 22¢ $45 7h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 22¢ $6 7h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 22¢ $6 7h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 22¢ $3 7h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 22¢ $23 7h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 22¢ $33 7h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 22¢ $10 7h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 22¢ $21 7h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 22¢ $20 7h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 22¢ $3 7h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 22¢ $18 7h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 22¢ $33 7h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,369 7h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $15 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $502.96 · official $482.43 · 277 history records