Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48da…f6b3 other 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$40
sports 24% −$23
politics 10% −$9
culture 5% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
economics 5% −$6
world 4% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage138d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $253 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $118 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $225 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $167 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $478 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $312 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $57 $0 -1%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $256 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $529 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $954 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $254 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $459 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $205 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $434 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $279 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $341 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $198 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $537 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $127 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $345 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $157 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $301 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $419 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $210 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 03 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $410 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 42m
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 3h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 7h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 9h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 11h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 12h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 14h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 16h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 17h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 19h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 23h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 25h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 26h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 27h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 29h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 33h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 35h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 39h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 41h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 42h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 44h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 45h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 47h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.27 · official $55.28 (match) · 1431 history records